UP elections -- advantage Mayawati
The Uttar Pradesh election process is now entering the final phase. Opinion polls and exit polls have painted different pictures, but none is ready to take a guess as to what alliance will form the Government in the State.
There are some things, however, that seem almost certain. Mulayam Singh Yadav seems to be on his way out due to various reasons. Firstly, in the 292 constituencies that have gone to the polls till now, the Election Commission has done a fair job so far as security is concerned. So the use of State and muscle power, including dacoits like Dadua in Chitrakoot – a department where Mulayam clearly leads his opponents -- has been curbed this time around. Secondly, Mulayam’s failure to strike a pre-poll alliance with Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal will give his archrival Mayawati an advantage in the second phase of the polls. A Jat-Muslim combination, had it come through, would have been invincible in the “Jat belt”. Thirdly, the rebellion of Samajwadi Party’s Kurmi leader Beni Prasad Verma, coupled with the BJP’s alliance with Sonelal Patel’s Kurmi-led party Apna Dal, will work to the detriment of the SP. Fourthly, with exit polls writing Mulayam Singh off, the Muslims, who were by and large with him when elections began, may shift for fear that every wasted vote may work in favour of the BJP. If this happens, they will strategically shift in the last two phases towards the stronger BSP and not towards the Congress. Mulayam went into these elections with a possible core vote base of 26 per cent of the population (18 per cent Muslims and 8.7 per cent Yadavs). But the Muslims may vote strategically for Muslim BSP candidates and there will be some wearing away of this support. His tally will thus go down from last time’s 140.
Mayawati seems poised to become the next Chief Minister. The Dalit population in the state is 22 per cent, of which the Chamars, her core vote-base, constitute the largest chunk. The Pasis and many others are also there among the Dalits, but the day when there will be a major vote-split within the Dalit castes has not yet arrived. So we can safely predict that Mayawati will corner a huge section of Dalit votes. Add to this her overtures to the Brahmins (close to 10 per cent of the population of the State according to the 1931 census and the 1994 Rapid Census) and we have a huge support base. Brahmins will mainly split between the BJP and the BSP – a few may even vote for the Congress – and every Brahmin vote for the BSP is the BJP’s loss. One must remember that Mayawati has given 86 seats, out of a total of 203, to Brahmins. The BSP will also get sizeable Muslim votes in the 61 constituencies where it has fielded Muslim candidates. So her seats will rise from last time’s 98 and should hover around the 150 mark.
The BJP is also witnessing a revival in U.P. since its poor performance in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. One important reason is the return of its core support base of caste Hindus. With Rajnath Singh as the party’s national president, the Thakurs (more than 7 per cent of the State’s population) are by and large back with the BJP. They had moved towards the SP when the Mayawati Government, supported by the BJP, had slapped POTA on Raja Bhaiyya. The Banias and Kayasths also seem to be with the party, along with many Brahmins. Perhaps Mandal II is one of the reasons for the upper castes’ return and their preference for the BJP. Though the BJP has not opposed Mandal II, they expect a sympathetic treatment from it. Upper castes together constitute 20 per cent of the state’s population, but the BJP will lose some of their votes to the BSP.
One major strategic success of the BJP has been its alliance with the Kurmi Apna Dal. The OBC Kurmis have a population of 3.5 per cent in the State and are influential in some pockets. Dainik Jagran claimed that they have a presence around Bareilly, which went to the polls in the third phase. This may benefit the BJP marginally in the Rohilkhand region that, on account of its high Muslim population, is otherwise electorally fertile for the SP. The sixth phase in south-eastern U.P. certainly has a considerable Kurmi population in constituencies like Gangapur, Nawabganj, Allahabad West, Raigarh, Robertsganj, etc., and the BJP, which was third here in the 2002 elections after the SP and the BSP, is all set to improve its tally in this region. It had 20 per cent votes in this region in 2002, behind SP’s 26 and BSP’s 24. Apna Dal had 7 per cent votes here. If the BJP and Apna Dal votes pile up here, the BJP will be a tough contender. The SP registered gains here in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, but these may be lost this time. In all, the BJP should be around the three-digit mark.
The Congress will surely remain fourth. Media reports are talking of the success of Rahul Gandhi’s rallies. But it is true that the Congress is the only party with no social base in U.P. today in the sense that no caste or religious group will primarily vote for it. If Rahul Gandhi’s family name and charisma can break sufficient individual votes to make a difference, the Congress may gain some seats from its 2002 tally of 25. But as charisma does not exist independent of a social base, there is a strong possibility that the Congress tally may not improve much.
Moreover, a European friend doing Ph.D. on U.P. told me that the Congress has divided its constituencies in three groups – most winnable, moderately winnable and not winnable. Rahul Gandhi’s rallies have focused on the first lot, and some in the second. This will ensure that even with poor results, the Congress can claim that the Congress won in most seats where Rahul campaigned.
Post-poll possibilities
In this scenario, the first possibility is of a BSP-Congress-RLD-Independents’ alliance coming to power with Mayawati as Chief Minister, but this will depend on the tally of the BSP and the Congress. If Mayawati gets about 150 seats, this alliance has high chances of shaping up, what with the Congress having the bargaining power of CBI probes against Mayawati.
The only other possibility as of now seems to be a BSP-BJP alliance with Mayawati as Chief Minister. The BJP, despite Rajnath Singh’s statements to the contrary, may eventually settle for it. For, expecting to win Himachal Pradesh next year, the BJP may like to go into the next Lok Sabha polls with practically the whole of North India under its belt.
There are some things, however, that seem almost certain. Mulayam Singh Yadav seems to be on his way out due to various reasons. Firstly, in the 292 constituencies that have gone to the polls till now, the Election Commission has done a fair job so far as security is concerned. So the use of State and muscle power, including dacoits like Dadua in Chitrakoot – a department where Mulayam clearly leads his opponents -- has been curbed this time around. Secondly, Mulayam’s failure to strike a pre-poll alliance with Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal will give his archrival Mayawati an advantage in the second phase of the polls. A Jat-Muslim combination, had it come through, would have been invincible in the “Jat belt”. Thirdly, the rebellion of Samajwadi Party’s Kurmi leader Beni Prasad Verma, coupled with the BJP’s alliance with Sonelal Patel’s Kurmi-led party Apna Dal, will work to the detriment of the SP. Fourthly, with exit polls writing Mulayam Singh off, the Muslims, who were by and large with him when elections began, may shift for fear that every wasted vote may work in favour of the BJP. If this happens, they will strategically shift in the last two phases towards the stronger BSP and not towards the Congress. Mulayam went into these elections with a possible core vote base of 26 per cent of the population (18 per cent Muslims and 8.7 per cent Yadavs). But the Muslims may vote strategically for Muslim BSP candidates and there will be some wearing away of this support. His tally will thus go down from last time’s 140.
Mayawati seems poised to become the next Chief Minister. The Dalit population in the state is 22 per cent, of which the Chamars, her core vote-base, constitute the largest chunk. The Pasis and many others are also there among the Dalits, but the day when there will be a major vote-split within the Dalit castes has not yet arrived. So we can safely predict that Mayawati will corner a huge section of Dalit votes. Add to this her overtures to the Brahmins (close to 10 per cent of the population of the State according to the 1931 census and the 1994 Rapid Census) and we have a huge support base. Brahmins will mainly split between the BJP and the BSP – a few may even vote for the Congress – and every Brahmin vote for the BSP is the BJP’s loss. One must remember that Mayawati has given 86 seats, out of a total of 203, to Brahmins. The BSP will also get sizeable Muslim votes in the 61 constituencies where it has fielded Muslim candidates. So her seats will rise from last time’s 98 and should hover around the 150 mark.
The BJP is also witnessing a revival in U.P. since its poor performance in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. One important reason is the return of its core support base of caste Hindus. With Rajnath Singh as the party’s national president, the Thakurs (more than 7 per cent of the State’s population) are by and large back with the BJP. They had moved towards the SP when the Mayawati Government, supported by the BJP, had slapped POTA on Raja Bhaiyya. The Banias and Kayasths also seem to be with the party, along with many Brahmins. Perhaps Mandal II is one of the reasons for the upper castes’ return and their preference for the BJP. Though the BJP has not opposed Mandal II, they expect a sympathetic treatment from it. Upper castes together constitute 20 per cent of the state’s population, but the BJP will lose some of their votes to the BSP.
One major strategic success of the BJP has been its alliance with the Kurmi Apna Dal. The OBC Kurmis have a population of 3.5 per cent in the State and are influential in some pockets. Dainik Jagran claimed that they have a presence around Bareilly, which went to the polls in the third phase. This may benefit the BJP marginally in the Rohilkhand region that, on account of its high Muslim population, is otherwise electorally fertile for the SP. The sixth phase in south-eastern U.P. certainly has a considerable Kurmi population in constituencies like Gangapur, Nawabganj, Allahabad West, Raigarh, Robertsganj, etc., and the BJP, which was third here in the 2002 elections after the SP and the BSP, is all set to improve its tally in this region. It had 20 per cent votes in this region in 2002, behind SP’s 26 and BSP’s 24. Apna Dal had 7 per cent votes here. If the BJP and Apna Dal votes pile up here, the BJP will be a tough contender. The SP registered gains here in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, but these may be lost this time. In all, the BJP should be around the three-digit mark.
The Congress will surely remain fourth. Media reports are talking of the success of Rahul Gandhi’s rallies. But it is true that the Congress is the only party with no social base in U.P. today in the sense that no caste or religious group will primarily vote for it. If Rahul Gandhi’s family name and charisma can break sufficient individual votes to make a difference, the Congress may gain some seats from its 2002 tally of 25. But as charisma does not exist independent of a social base, there is a strong possibility that the Congress tally may not improve much.
Moreover, a European friend doing Ph.D. on U.P. told me that the Congress has divided its constituencies in three groups – most winnable, moderately winnable and not winnable. Rahul Gandhi’s rallies have focused on the first lot, and some in the second. This will ensure that even with poor results, the Congress can claim that the Congress won in most seats where Rahul campaigned.
Post-poll possibilities
In this scenario, the first possibility is of a BSP-Congress-RLD-Independents’ alliance coming to power with Mayawati as Chief Minister, but this will depend on the tally of the BSP and the Congress. If Mayawati gets about 150 seats, this alliance has high chances of shaping up, what with the Congress having the bargaining power of CBI probes against Mayawati.
The only other possibility as of now seems to be a BSP-BJP alliance with Mayawati as Chief Minister. The BJP, despite Rajnath Singh’s statements to the contrary, may eventually settle for it. For, expecting to win Himachal Pradesh next year, the BJP may like to go into the next Lok Sabha polls with practically the whole of North India under its belt.
posted by vikaspathak at 12:31 AM
3 Comments:
The question is not who will become UP's chief minister. Rather, the question is: whom will Mayavati decide to ally with?
The SP is out of the question; there has been enough sabre rattling between Mayavati and Mulayam Singh, and more importantly, their vote banks are mutually antagonistic.
The Congress? If the Congress equals its 2002 tally, a BSP-RLD-Congress tieup may indeed get Mayavati the numbers she requires. The Congress has kept a studied silence on aligning with the BSP - its spokesman said no to an alliance with the SP, but did not explicitly rule out one with the BSP.
Why would the Congress do so? Mayavati will keep the Congress on a tight leash, granting it the disdain that it rightfully desires. She is unlikely to come to a CM-swap agreement like the one she had with the BJP.
But can the Congress, which has been losing power in state after state, be in a position to be choosy? If the Congress wins more seats than last time (unlikely) AND joins the government, could it not lead to some (admittedly, only self-delusional) credence to the Rahul myth?
Rahul has, like his mother back in Panchmari, expressed his displeasure of coalitions (the Family, it seems, still has notions that India must be ruled as its jagir).
For Mayavati, the benefits are many: she gets a 'friendly' central government - ie. go slows on the many CBI cases against her and racheting up of those against Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh. A Congress partner would, having little to gain and much to lose, stick on longer than any other party.
For the Congress, joining the government would be a reversal of its losing streak.
What about a BSP-BJP coalition? The numbers would certainly add up.
Rajnath Singh has expressed his reservations, and the two parties do not have a happy history. Kalyan Singh, the BJP's chief ministerial candidate, will have his share of issues.
More importantly, this is a move that could hack away at Rajnath's Thakur vote base. Remember, they abandoned the party for the SP on the BJP's continued support to the BSP even after Mayavati cracked down on Raja bhaiyya and his father. The thakur does not take an insult slightly. Nor was he happy over the rising dalit assertion that was a direct consequence of Mayavati's rule.
Nevertheless, Mayavati has been making noises remarkably similar to what the BJP's constituency wants to hear. She's spoken against the OBC quota in the current form, called for a fresh census to determine their proportion, has asked for economic criterion for Muslim reservations. And, interestingly, the number of Muslim candidates fielded this time has fallen.
And, there've been innumerable bhaichara meetings. Not anything of that sort for the Muslims.
What is it that we hear about the Mayavati government, which we hear, is lacking in the SP government? Its administrative efficiency! It sounds quite close to urban class speak. The BSP is recalled not for its anti-savarana actions, but for its 'reformist' face. When we have a glossing over of caste, we can be sure that the urban classes - inevitably upper caste, and pro-BJP - are behind it.
What we are witnessing is the Sanskritisation and Westernisation of the BSP! It will lead, in the logical end, to a clash between the BJP and BSP for the BJP's core class constituency. But for now, the parties can be together 'ideologically' (for lack of a better descriptive term).
However, the UP elections have a larger resonance. In Karnataka, for instance, Deve Gowda has been making noises against the BJP, and there are many who wonder if he's not planning a return to a Congress-JD(S) coalition. The UP election results are key - the BJP's continued resurgence might just put a damper, while the Congress in the treasury benches could swing him.
If I had to take a call, it would be for a BSP-BJP coalition. The BJP is on a roll and sitting in the opposition in UP would be a bump in its road to Delhi 2009. I'm willing to bet that they'll accommodate Mayavati's demands, for the spectacle of 'ruling north India'. More so, when they know that any sign of a Congress resurgence may yet keep the smaller parties in the UPA bound to the Congress.
Who knows, depending on the final nos, we may even see BJP and SP coming together.... But this is possible only if the results make Mulayam feel really pushed to the wall and Congress and BSP dont add up the numbers. The BJP-RSS may just cling on to this alliance.... But, this alliance seems somewhat unlikely as of now
The RSS has not been averse to a ties-up with the SP, true; but whether a BJP-SP alliance is around the corner is another question. The 'gentlemen's' (sic!)agreement between the two parties is rather well know, but converting it to a formal pact may affect both. For one, it may alienate the upper class voters of the BJP, who aren't too fond of the Yadavs. The Muslims who vote for the SP would also seek alternatives.
The BJP-SP link works precisely because they seek votes from mutually antagonistic groups, and each party is seen as protecting the interests of their constituencies against the other. Any action of one party, therefore has the effect of pushing the vote banks back to their respective parties.
So, unless the SP sees the Muslims irrevocably moving away from it, I do not see a BJP-SP government coming up.
More so, in the current assembly, where the SP seems to come up with seats equal or even more than the BJP.
Also, there is the CPI(M) angle. Granted, the SP cares two hoots about the CPI(M) in UP. But, without the CPI(M), it does not have any protection against the Congress at the centre. The CPI(M) may wink away the SP's links with Ambani, goons, kidnappers, the BJP et al., but an explicit tie-up with the BJP will definitely be beyond the limit.
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